Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
